FluxrBot

FluxrBot is an automated trading system for prediction markets — the corner of finance where a contract pays $1 if an event happens and nothing if it doesn't, which makes its price a live probability rather than a quote. Combined monthly volume across the two major venues, Polymarket and Kalshi, grew from under $5B in September 2025 to roughly $45B by mid-2026, and almost every bot built for them chases the same signal: order-book movement and whale wallets. FluxrBot chases a different one. It reads the news and prices the probability shift before the book reacts.

The engine watches 52 named news and data sources — 34 feeds, 15 Bluesky accounts and one economic release calendar. Reuters and AP closed their public RSS feeds, but both still post to Bluesky, and FluxrBot holds an open connection there, so wire copy arrives first-hand instead of through whoever reprints it. Measured on live posts, a story becomes a deduplicated, entity-tagged event in our database within 16 to 22 seconds. Four seconds after that there is a decision: every contract the event touches has been scored, a second independent model pass has re-estimated the probability, and a third has built the case against the trade. If the two estimates disagree on direction, the engine passes.

Most of the time, it passes. FluxrBot logs about 570 refusals for every trade it makes, each with its stated reason, and shows them to you exactly the way it shows fills. That is the unusual part of the design: the system is built to be doubted, by itself first. Four strategies — news-driven, group arbitrage, cross-venue and forecast-versus-market — each run on their own separate account, because strategies that share one account can never be told apart afterwards.

Custody is none, by design. FluxrBot connects through revocable exchange API keys that place and close orders and do nothing else. It cannot withdraw, transfer or hold funds, and it never asks for seed phrases, card numbers or exchange passwords. Position caps, daily loss limits, drawdown halts and concentration ceilings are enforced in code before an order is ever built, and the engine says so out loud when it stops itself. Every fill and every skipped trade lands in your Telegram with the event that triggered it, the model's probability and the edge.

The system currently runs on paper accounts. Live trading is deliberately gated on settled history, because a trading system without a track record is a claim, not a product — so far that is 7 trades and 3,991 refusals, all logged. Alongside it we publish five free calculators for prediction market traders at fluxrbot.com/tools: an hourly live radar of the biggest movers on both venues, a payout calculator with Kalshi's exact fee formula, an odds converter, a Kelly position-sizing calculator and a cross-venue arbitrage checker. No account, no signup, no paywall.

Pricing is a 3-day free trial from activation with no card required, then $2,499/month. Trading on prediction markets involves risk of loss. FluxrBot automates execution — it does not guarantee profit. Trade only with funds you can afford to lose.